1. Can Trump Beat Biden or some version of who will win in 2024.
My Answer? - Trump
2. Do You Think Dems will consider making a switch from Biden?
My Answer? - No…but they should...have?
Question #1
Let’s talk briefly about why #1 is a yes for me. While I’ll expand in a later post, here is the simple explanation right now of why I think Trump wins in 2024.
There are the five key states Biden flipped to win in 2020 and below are the most recent public polls showing the likely 2024 matchup.
Arizona – Trump +4.8
Wisconsin – Tied (but moving towards Trump with most recent poll shows Trump +4)
Michigan – Trump +5.3
Georgia - Trump +6.6 over Biden
Pennsylvania – Toss Up
Average….. Trump +3.3!
Folks, right now Trump is on pace to win back at least three of those states, which would put the electoral map at 277. That's enough for Trump to take back the Presidency even if he lost the two toss ups, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
So, if you ask me today, based on math alone (Biden in the tank, voters in swing states choosing Trump) I’d put my money on Trump and I wouldn’t think twice about it. It’s likely going to be my opinion through the entire election unless Trump actually gets convicted for something other than what voters equate to a speeding ticket or if Democrats somehow successfully make a secret squirrel transition that moves them on from Biden, which brings me to....
Question #2, again, briefly.
Do You Think Dems will consider making a switch from Biden?
Let me get this out of the way. I firmly believe that if either party had a different nominee, they would be the winner. I think almost anyone new against someone old would be the clear winner and there is absolutely no doubt in my mind.
To the chagrin of the White House, Biden's age has become a defining part of the 2024 campaign. David Axelrod, a top White House adviser during Barack Obama's presidency, said Biden needed to decide whether it was smart to run again, after November polling showed him lagging in key swing states against Trump. - Rueters 11/30/23
Joe Biden’s approval rating is bad. He’s 16 points underwater, old, white, and seems to have lost a step when it comes to some of the wit and energy that got him to where he was. Democrats should have (and many probably did) begged Biden to get out and done everything in their power to dissuade Biden from seeking re-election. Yet here we are 10 months away and he’s the one Democrats are stuck with.
Biden’s “Health Concerns” could possibly give Democrats an out, as many of you have proposed might or will happen. While I think Dems should have done everything to get Biden not to run, now that he is in, the whole thing gets much, much tricker. Why? It would have to be executed perfectly with zero margin for error.
Let’s assume Dems get Biden out. The question becomes, who do they put in?
"Among the possible scenarios if the president, 81, did drop out: Democrats could pick another nominee next August at their convention, or even later, in line with party rules. Biden's running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris, who has her own popularity problems, would not automatically replace him as the top candidate if he stepped aside" - Reuters 11/30/23
For new folks, you might want to read some of my previous analysis, mainly the one where I discuss why Biden won and Hillary lost. Hint: Democrat Unity behind Biden was the difference compared to a splintered Dem base in 2016 for Hillary.
Biden has a VP as we all know, and if Dems were to pick someone other than her to succeed him, it has the potential to really mess with that Democrat unity thing they had going for them in 2020.
While moving on from Biden has huge advantages, dividing your base by having the “establishment” effectively hand choose a replacement creates its own disadvantage, mainly upsetting Democrats who may opt to vote third party rather than suck it up behind the handpicked establishment Dem nominee.
Dems would need Biden on board, along with AOC, Bernie, and a lot of other far left Dems to make this work. I also don't see how they could possibly make it anyone other than the current VP, Kamala Harris.
Can you imagine the rationale Dems would have to sell to Democrat female voters if they chose anyone other than the Democrat female Vice President of the United States? If they choose a male, like say ole Gavin Newsom as some of you wrote in (not happening), they’d shoot themselves in the foot having to explain to passionate Dem females why a male candidate was a better option (good luck).
So, to summarize, for me, Dems only choice would be Kamala Harris…IF…they actually decided to go that route. Choosing anyone else would create chaos and likely be a wash at best. It's a delicate ordeal that would have to meticulously executed, and for that reason alone, I simply say, it's highly unlikely (with an outside shot they go the Kamala route).
Again, I’m always here for questions, and I’ll go into more detail in a later post, but these folks, are my answers for now.