Trump Likely Wins.
I will give you a quick "why" and then a "what to watch for."
THE WHY
Let's head to Real Clear Politics, as always, for live time polling guessing.....
Look at that 2024 vs 2020 Spread folks. Huge swings.
Next, look at the Battlegrounds. While close, Trump leads in every single one.
Most importantly, Harris hasn't led in basically a month. Remember folks, Trump won a close on in 16, Biden a close on in 20. So the fact Harris is behind in these things, unlike Biden showed in 20, is an indicator.
But most importantly...look at all that Red below, it was barely ever blue, and has been all red ever since September 20th on.
I could expand, but it' an easy "why" in the sense that these polls never really ever showed Trump losing. The Harris "lead" lasted less than 30 days.
Now WHY is Trump going to win? Is this Harris's or Dem's fault? I don't really think so, because Dems were always tied to the Biden inflation and economy, and I don't think either Biden or Harris ever could have overcome that.
In fact, I wrote in January that I thought a swap would be too problematic to help the Dems recover and then later wrote after the switch that "Democrats were in trouble no matter who their nominee was" and that "Harris is a bad choice and always was because she's part of the administration responsible for record inflation."
Look, Trump is simply likely to win because, while he has run a better campaign for sure, Harris was never going to be able to run from the economy. She had two choices, throw Biden under the bus or don't. She chose not to, and that cost Democrats any shot they had.
THE WHAT TO WATCH FOR
I was quoted this week in a newspaper simply stating pretty much my tagline for the brilliantly executed Trump campaign to date: Trump has gone from blaming the game, to playing the game. What I mean by that is the ballot game, and specifically encouraging supporters to vote early and my mail, and not to wait until election day. Simply put, it's smart and it has paid off.
Also Super Smart: Running a toned down campaign and working with Republicans in EVERY state! Remember, In 2020 he battled with a Georgia Governor, a Pennsylvania election official, and a beloved US Senator from Arizona. Those things hurt him. This time around he's made amends with Kemp and avoided any unnecessary party drama.
I mention this because on election night, Trump needs to be ahead in these swing states, and I think he's banked enough votes to do that. So what are you watching for? How many votes did Republicans bank. Is Trump ahead when ballots first drop after election day has been counted. No, this won't be over on election night, but because of this new Trump strategy you won't see nearly as much hemorrhaging or bleeding after election night. Again, Trump has likely banked too many votes in at least some of these states.
Simple prediction really....I'm going with the polls, and going what I have thought since January. I think the Trump campaign deserves all the credit int the world, and while the Harris campaign wasn't great...I still don't know what she could have done short of throwing Biden under the bus.
We'll see if I'm right sometime next week!
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