I have many, but let me just sketch out a few quick ones here.
First, I have been of the mindset this entire time, knowing Biden and who he is, that he was going to be the nominee. He didn't want to go out like this, and i didn't think he would go out like this. Love him or hate him, it's just not joe Biden's way.
That being said, my opinion shifted from ironclad to "it's possible" after the assassination attempt. Trump's convention speech was a problem for Dems. It wasn't just toned down, he didn't even take his normal shots, barely mentioning the Biden "administration. At the end of the day, I think that this toned down Trump scares Democrats way more than Biden being their nominee.
So here are some quick hits.
I don't think Dems make the switch today had Trump not been shot, and Biden not got Covid. If you know Biden, you know he never goes down without a fight. Biden didn't want to step down, and as a spectator, it's kind of sad to see him go down like this.
2. I wrote a long while back about the possibility of a change. There was no alternative other than Harris, and Democrats are in a pickle, a true darned if you do, darned if you don't, situation. They HAVE to pick Harris, and cannot pass on an African American female Vice President in yet another election year where minorities and women are some of the biggest swing voters. It appears this is exactly what they will do now, with Biden endorsing her. I'd still be shocked to see them choose anyone else.
3. However......Harris is a bad choice and always was. In addition to being part of the administration responsible for record inflation, she has a definite image problem, similar to what another Democrat female nominee had in 2016...who I could argue was one of the most unpopular nominees in recent history.
Again, just telling you what voters think folks, and fair or not, Harris is just not as likeable as other prominent Democrat candidates.....say like the Democrat Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer....who "Around 53% of Michiganders see Whitmer favorably, and only 40% said they disliked her."
3b. But mainly......Democrats were in trouble no matter who their nominee was. Inflation is the highest it has been since 1981, and it's nearly 3x the normal average since Biden took office. In 2020, voters were willing to take a chance on the economy and inflation...I don't think they're willing to take the same chance after four years of this economy under Biden and....Harris! like it or not, she's permanently tied to Biden's wins, losses, and failures. She, and Democrats cannot run from that, and voters don't see her any better than they saw Biden. In fact, some polls have even shown Harris being even more unpopular than Biden!
A flurry of polls conducted in the wake of the June 27 presidential debate showed Harris performing roughly the same as Biden against Trump (who has been leading the president by a slim margin for months), and more recent polls after the attempted assassination of Trump show similar trends.
4. The Dem VP Pick will be fascinating! While I don't think today's historic announcement changes much, I am not anointing Trump the next President quite yet. That's because my other immediate thought on today's news was....Democrats don't just get a new nominee, they get a new VP pick as well. While tied to Biden, Harris also has the opportunity to go out and find the charismatic VP pick who I only have to assume will be more popular than her. The pick will be must see TV.
5. Will Vance be a mistake? I thought Republicans could have done better last week, mainly because I don't see the transition between Trump and Vance you typically hope for. You want a VP who offsets your issues, someone who you can differentiate. Even Pence in 2016 was somewhat of a well spoken statesman vs. Trump's in your face say anything style. Vance is already shooting bombs since he was announced, calling for Biden to step down from his Presidency today (which kind of sounds silly). While I have often called for Republicans to find candidates with more energy and enthusiasm, Vance is still yet another white male on a Republican ticket. So part of me most definitely wonders if Republicans will wish they had a do-over on their VP pick when all this shakes out.
Ok, those are my immediate thoughts, not well written, but written. As always, my thoughts are formed by how voters feel and view politics, not my own. And I'm just telling you, those voters:
Were already un-thrilled with Biden
Aren't exactly fans of Harris.
Like this toned-down Trump more than the in your face Trump from the two previous campaigns.
As always, email in your questions anytime, happy to answer!
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