I said the day before that Trump Likely Wins. I thought we might have to sweat more, but it didn't take nearly as long as many thought, as today Trump is the next President Elect.
Some quick thoughts:
Let's not forget, with the exception of a very short 26 days, Trump has been ahead in the polls for the entire last year. Again, other than 26 days from August 25th to September 20th, he has led the Real Clear Politics polling, up as high as 48.5% last April. It wasn't close prior to Biden's exit, and it hasn't been close with Harris since September. No one should be shocked or surprised right now if you were actually looking at this race from an objective perspective.
"If you ask me today, based on math alone (Biden in the tank, voters in swing states choosing Trump) I’d put my money on Trump and I wouldn’t think twice about it. It’s likely going to be my opinion through the entire election." - Me 1/16/24
I wrote previously about the Harris momentum and why I felt it would not last. I cited the best example as 2008 when McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. Again, the trend lines between the two were so similar and make so much sense. An unknown fresh face can bring momentum but momentum doesn't always last.
I also wrote after the switch that "Harris is a bad choice and always was. In addition to being part of the administration responsible for record inflation, she has a definite image problem" and that "voters (1) Were already un-thrilled with Biden, (2) Aren't exactly fans of Harris, and (3) Like this toned-down Trump more than the in your face Trump from the two previous campaigns.
Again, Harris has only one potential winning strategy in my opinion, throw Joe Biden under the bus. She refused to do it, and voters just could not trust her on the economy at the end of the day.
"Democrats were in trouble no matter who their nominee was. Inflation is the highest it has been since 1981, and it's nearly 3x the normal average since Biden took office. In 2020, voters were willing to take a chance on the economy and inflation...I don't think they're willing to take the same chance after four years of this economy under Biden and....Harris." - Me 7/21/24
Look, Harris spent far too much time talking about Trump and not enough time talking about actual policy, something voters needed to hear.
While Frank is not wrong, I also understand WHY Harris ran the way she did. The hope was simple, they wanted an unhinged Donald Trump. They baited and baited and baited him, hoping he would implode. He just never did. You can't blame them for hoping, or thinking, Trump would. The problem is he didn't, which brings me to thought #3.
All Credit Where Credit is due here. This has been the most masterful campaign Trump has run, and far better than the Harris campaign. They did three things well that are completely different from 2016 and 2020 specifically.
Messaging. Trump poked a lot less bears this cycle, and his messaging, mainly his tone, was much different. Putting him in a garbage truck, sending him to McDonalds to work a shift, and holding Hispanic roundtables with celebrities. He took things less personal, he was more energetic, frankly more likeable. Other than a horrific debate performance, he made very few mistakes, and rarely took the debate. Sometimes you need to win, and sometimes you just don't need to make mistakes.
"At the end of the day, I think that this toned down Trump scares Democrats way more than Biden being their nominee." - Me 7/21/24
b. Unity. In 2020, Trump battled with John McCain in Arizona and lost there, called out a Republican Governor in Georgia and lost there, and sent a Republican Senator in Nebraska packing in Ben Sasse among many others. He pissed off a lot of Republicans, he split his own party, and losing Georgia and Arizona was part of that consequence. This time around? No such nonsense! He even thanked Republican Governor Brian Kemp and made total amends. As hard as Democrats tried, Trump stayed on point, and the result was a unified Republican Party determined to get behind him.
c. Strategy. In 2020, Trump and Republicans blamed ballot harvesting an fraud for their losses. They lost in part because the Democrat turnout machine harvested ballots and millions that came in after election day propelled Biden to victory. This time around the Trump campaign was prepared and ready.
"...even mail-in ballots — sent out to every Nevada voter, but maligned by Trump both before and after the 2020 election as a fraudulent practice — saw a huge uptick in Republican participation: over 140,000 Republicans had mailed ballots by Friday.
“In 2020, they blamed the game. Now, they’re playing the game,” said Zachary Moyle, a Las Vegas-based Republican consultant and former executive director of the state GOP, said of Trump’s campaign." - Deseret News 11/1/24
Look, the Trump campaign was too good to beat this time around, they just were. The Republican ballot harvesting operation is probably the unsung hero (or villain depending on who you were hoping would win) of this election cycle. We can talk all day long about the Harris campaign struggling, but again, I don't think they had a shot here folks. Trump was too good, too on point, and Republicans were too unified (just like Biden and Dems were in 2020) to lose this one. Maybe in another year, but not in one where they were running against the administration that caused record inflation.
Blame Democrats and Harris if you like, but today, I'm going to decide to credit Donald J. Trump and his team. They deserve it.
As always, fire away with questions if you have them, I am happy to answer.
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